The Battle for Number 10 Continues…
During the run-up to the Election, we have seen surprise shock results with the latest polls, published on the 6th June by YouGov, suggesting that Theresa May will fall 21 seats short of a majority, which would result in a hung parliament. This is a very different story to the day Theresa May announced her snap election, with Senior Conservatives urging her to call an early Election to make the most of the Conservatives' opinion poll lead over the Labour party.
We were positively able to predict the outcome of the 2015 general election by using sentiment and social volume, as well as other indicators. So what can our data tell you about the current political environment for 2017 this close to the big day - do we expect to see a hung parliament?
Although May is steadily creeping up with Corbyn, the Labour party are still ahead in social mentions. This shows an inverse relationship to the data from 2015 where Cameron at this point was ahead of Miliband. Does this mean that the predicted General Election win is an inverse of 2015?
This, however, doesn’t paint the whole picture. The volume of social mentions doesn’t tell us whether people are reacting positively or negatively to the Party leaders. To answer this we need to consider sentiment. Our proprietary sentiment algorithms analyse millions of data points every day. We use this data to determine whether the sentiment surrounding certain people and companies is positive or negative and are able to separate out the sentiment for organisations and key people. We can use this to see which party is more favorable according to the nation in real time.
In 2015, both parties saw positive sentiment, whereas in the current run-up both parties are viewed negatively according to social mentions. This marks a shift in the nation's attitudes, are they simply sick of politics? Or has Brexit and the recent terror attacks also had an impact?
Corbyn and May have maintained a level playing field, with both parties seeing an increase overall in sentiment, up until the end of the campaign. As we get closer to June 8th, we can see notable spikes for the Conservatives as May deals with criticism over policing levels in relation to the London Bridge attack. Prior to that, we saw spikes for Labour as Corbyn released the Labour Party manifesto and then as May dealt with President Donald Trump over leaked photos of the Manchester bomb tragedy for the Conservatives.
The results this year are far more complicated than in 2017, where we saw the greatest number of social mentions and the highest average sentiment for Cameron, giving a clear predicted outcome. Currently, both 2017 Party leaders are fairly similar for social mentions, however, it seems as voting day gets closer, May is seeing more negative sentiment. Both parties are still seeing negative sentiment in contrast to 2015 so could this indicate that no party will achieve a majority and support the current poll predictions? Or will the increased negative social mentions mean that Corbyn might have a chance of winning?
One thing that’s for sure is that this year we are seeing a shift in the Nation's opinions towards the General Election, not only are we seeing less social mentions overall, they are predominantly negative.
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