Theresa Thinks She's Got The Election in The Bag- But Has She?
Jeremy Corbyn is fighting a good fight against Theresa May in the battle for number 10. The latest polls published by YouGov suggest that Theresa May could potentially lose her majority: losing up to 20 seats and Labour gaining up to 30 seats, which would result in a hung parliament.
By using sentiment and social volume, as well as other indicators we were able to positively predict the outcome of the 2015 general election. So what can our data tell you about the current political environment for 2017 - do we expect to see a hung parliament?
So far, Corbyn is leading in social mentions. This is an inverse relationship to the data from 2015 where Cameron at this point was ahead of Miliband. Does this mean that the predicted General Election win is an inverse of 2015?
This doesn’t paint the whole picture. The volume of social mentions doesn’t tell us whether people are reacting positively or negatively to the Party leaders. To answer this we need to consider sentiment. Our proprietary sentiment algorithms analyse millions of data points every day. We use this data to determine whether the sentiment surrounding certain people and companies is positive or negative and are able to separate out the sentiment for organisations and key people. We can use this to see which party is more favorable according to the nation in real time.
In 2015, both parties saw positive sentiment, whereas in the current run-up both parties are viewed negatively according to social mentions. This marks a shift in the nation's attitudes, are they simply sick of politics? Or has Brexit had a knock-on effect…?
Corbyn and May see a level playing field when is comes to sentiment, with notable spikes for Labour as Corbyn releases the Labour Party manifesto and Conservatives see their maximum drop as May deals with President Donald Trump over leaked photos of the Manchester bomb tragedy.
The results this year are far more complicated than in 2017, where we saw the greatest number of social mentions and the highest average sentiment for Cameron, giving a clear predicted outcome. Currently, both 2017 Party leaders are fairly similar for both sentiment and the gap in social mentions has closed between Labour and Conservatives. Could this indicate that no party will achieve a majority and support the current poll predictions? Or will the increased negative social mentions mean that Theresa has this in the bag?
One thing that’s for sure is that this year we are seeing a shift in the Nation's opinions towards the General Election, not only are we seeing less social mentions overall, they are predominantly negative.
Don’t be caught out! On the 31st May as shock polls were announced and there was the suggestion of a hung parliament, Sterling dropped to its six-week low as markets reacted.
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